ROCHESTER, N.Y. – July 21, 2008

With just six weeks to go until the Democrat and Republican Presidential conventions, the general election is almost officially here. Results from a new Harris Poll show that:

In a four way race, Barack Obama leads John McCain among registered voters 44 percent to 35 percent, while Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate and Ralph Nader each receive 2 percent. Sixteen percent of registered voters are not sure who they will vote for yet;

Among gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender (GLBT) adults (though not specifically registered voters) 60% of GLBT adults favor Obama while 14% favor McCain. Three percent of GLBT adults favor Barr, while 1% choose Nader. Six percent choose “other,” while 17% of all GLBT voters are not yet sure which candidate to support – comparable to the general population.

John McCain is holding onto just slightly more of his base as just over three-quarters of Republicans (77%) say they will vote for him versus just under three-quarters of Democrats (74%) who will vote for Barack Obama; and,

Among Independents, Obama has a 12-point lead (38% to 26%), but one-quarter of Independents (25%) are not sure, 4 percent would vote for Bob Barr and 3 percent for Ralph Nader.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,690 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive® between July 3 and 11, 2008. Like all polls conducted well before an election, this should not be read as a prediction, but rather as a snap shot of the presidential “horse race”.

Additional results include:

Half of Matures (those over 63) say they would vote for John McCain, while three in ten (29%) would vote for Senator Obama, indicating that some of McCain’s strongest support comes from this generation;

Half (51%) of the youngest generation or Echo Boomers (those aged 18-31) would vote for Barack Obama while just one-quarter (24%) would vote for Senator McCain;

Ninety percent of African Americans are voting for Senator Obama, as are six in ten Hispanics (60%). Whites, however, are leaning towards Senator McCain over Senator Obama (40% versus 34%);

Over two in five men (42%) and women (43%) say they would vote for Senator Obama, while over one-third of men (36%) and three in ten women (30%) would vote for Senator McCain. This suggests that the gender gap doesn’t really exist this year; and,

Half of single women (51%) would vote for Senator Obama while just one-quarter (25%) would vote for Senator McCain. Married women are more closely divided – 37 percent would vote for Obama and 36 percent would vote for McCain.

So What?

While Americans are thinking of summer vacations and the beach, November 4th may seem like eons away. However, in reality, the election is just 15 weeks from now. That means that everything from this point on in time definitely matters.

Regina Corso, Director of The Harris Poll, said, “Senator Obama’s lead seems solid, but there are some troubling spots to watch for in his campaign. First, Matures are solidly behind John McCain, and this is a group that goes out and votes in the strongest numbers among all age groups. Further, the divide among married women is also extremely close. With almost one-quarter of this group (22%) undecided, the candidate that can win the lion’s share of those undecided Americans can move these overall numbers.”

To see the data tables, please visit: http://www.witeckcombs.com/news/releases//20080721_harris2.pdf .