A leading Republican senator is playing down the chances that a repeal of the ban on gays serving openly in the military will pass during the lame-duck session of Congress. The Pentagon plans to release a survey on Tuesday that’s expected to show that a majority of troops don’t care if gays are allowed to serve openly in the armed services. The study is expected to set the stage for a Senate showdown between advocates of repealing the 17-year-old “don’t ask, don’t tell” law and a small but powerful group of foes. The House has passed repeal legislation.

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